The International Grain Council’s forecast for world total grains
(wheat and coarse grains) production in 2020/21 is raised to 2,224mt, an increase of 2% y/y (year-on-year) including record harvests of wheat, maize, and barley. Because of increased consumption, projected total grain carryover stocks at the end of 2020/21 are 2m t lower m/m, at 609m (-8m y/y). Trade is forecast to reach a record 416m t (+22m y/y), with shipments of wheat and maize at records.
Principally tied to bigger outturns in the US and Brazil, 2020/21 world soyabean production is seen at 361m t (+7% y/y), fractionally short of the 2018/19 record. With consumption expected to advance, stocks are set to fall for a second successive year, with US inventories plunging after a season of heavy exports. Trade is seen steady y/y, at a high of 170m t, matching the prior year’s record. With elevated values likely to result in a significant supply response, world acreage could expand by 4% y/y in 2021/22 as output increases to a peak of 383m t. As total use expands, only a modest recovery in stocks is anticipated, with inventories in key exporters remaining thin. Trade is seen at a new high, with China’s imports again exceeding 100m t.
The Council’s first assessment of world total grains supply and demand in 2021/22 projects a 62m t rise in production, to a record 2,287m, up 3% y/y including new highs for wheat and maize. Increased food, feed and industrial uses are seen lifting total consumption by 54m t y/y, to 2,286m. At 609m t at the end of 2021/22, global stocks are projected to be unchanged y/y. Including reduced shipments of wheat and barley, global trade is seen declining by 6m t y/y, to 410m.
Pig333 | International Grains Counci | March 29